Supercomputer predicts Arsenal's potential Champions League round of 16 opponents

  • Arsenal have all but booked place in Champions League round of 16
  • Gunners likely to finish third or fourth in league phase table
  • Real Madrid among projected potential opponents
Arsenal have been efficient throughout the Champions League league phase
Arsenal have been efficient throughout the Champions League league phase | Nigel French/Allstar/GettyImages

Wednesday night could be unlike we've ever seen before in the Champions League: 18 games, simultaneous kick-offs, and Ally McCoist on the Goals Show. Mayhem.

While an array of teams are stressing over their futures in the competition, Arsenal are set to enjoy their evening in Catalonia. Five wins from seven means the Gunners are all but guaranteed a place in the top eight of the league phase table and thus the round of 16.

The format change means those finishing between ninth and 24th will compete over two legs in a bid to join the Gunners - and seven others who'll qualify automatically after Wednesday's games - in the last 16.

Now, it does get a little complicated in terms of projecting who Arsenal could play in the round of 16. Opta currently predicts the Gunners to finish fourth in the table with 18.1 points, meaning they'll face the winner of the knockout round play-off tie between the teams that finished 13th and 14th or 19th and 20th in the league phase table. Don't ask why, that's just how UEFA are doing things.

With that in mind, let's look at who Opta project to finish in those spots and are thus Arsenal's most likely potential opponents in the Champions League round of 16.


Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappe, Rodrygo Goes, Vinicius Junior
Nightmare matchup | Angel Martinez/GettyImages

The holders have proven themselves to be fallible in Europe this season, but there's no denying that this would be a nightmare draw for Arsenal. Madrid are 16th in the table following an indifferent opening 17 games, but they're top of La Liga and Kylian Mbappe once again looks like the generational superstar we all grew to know.

They're projected to finish 13th in the table after Matchday 8, so Opta are backing them to beat surprise-package Brest away from home.

If Arsenal finish fourth and Madrid do end up 13th, a round of 16 duel between the pair would be likely. Eek.


Feyenoord

Santiago Gimenez, David Hancko
Arsenal have never faced Feyenoord before | Dean Mouhtaropoulos/GettyImages

Feyenoord are predicted to face Madrid in the knockout play-off round after finishing 14th. They're currently 11th in the table having beaten Bayern Munich 3-0 at De Kuip on Matchday 7.

Their uptick in continental form during the second half of the league phase has left them in a good position, and the Dutch side have an outside shot of finishing in the top eight. However, they've got a tricky game on Matchday 8 away at Lille and Opta is backing a draw which could see them slide down to 14th.

A round of 16 clash with Arsenal would be the first competitive meetings between the two clubs.


Sporting CP

Gabriel, Franco Israel
Arsenal put the Portuguese giants to the sword in November | Alex Pantling/GettyImages

Once we reach the knockout rounds, I couldn't care less if we're facing teams we've encountered before. The novelty of Feyenoord would be neat, but we've already seen what we can do to this Sporting CP team.

In seasons prior, you couldn't play against the team you qualified with from the group stage in the round of 16. The format change has facilitated a ditching of old rules, with teams from the same UEFA member assocations also able to face off. In theory, Arsenal could play Manchester City in the last 16.

The Gunners thumped Sporting CP 5-1 on Matchday 5 of the league phase in late November. Ruben Amorim's exit from the Portuguese capital has hit hard, but Opta reckons they'll beat Bologna on Wednesday and climb up to 19th.


PSV Eindhoven

Patrick van Aanholt, William Saliba
Arsenal have taken on PSV in their previous two European campaigns | Dean Mouhtaropoulos/GettyImages

Another familiar face. Arsenal met Ruud van Nistelrooy's PSV in the 2022/23 Europa League and Peter Bosz's iteration in the group stage of this competition last season.

The Dutch side have emerged as the Eredivisie's dominant force with Bosz at the helm, but they have lost three times in the league this term having lost just one domestic game all year in 2023/24.

PSV will benefit from playing a heavily rotated Liverpool team on Matchday 8, and I'd be surprised if they slipped down the table. They're currently 19th.


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