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Despite impressive victories for Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona on Wednesday night, Opta rates Arsenal as the favourites to win their first-ever Champions League.
The Gunners' lack of European pedigree was held against them as they prepared for the first leg of their quarter-final with 15-time winners Real Madrid, but Mikel Arteta's men produced a coming of age display in N5.
A 3-0 victory, one inspired by Declan Rice's free-kick mastery, leaves them with a foot in the last four. Still, next Wednesday's second leg at the Santiago Bernabeu has potential to be nervy. Madrid have a knack, and they can't be written off until the very last.
Thus, we shouldn't be weighing up who we'd rather face in the semi-finals just yet. There's still plenty of football to be played. However, it's hard to not to get excited about the potential of a first Champions League semi since 2009, and the showpiece event in Munich.
Opta's supercomputer is backing Arsenal to ascend into a previously untouched realm at the end of May.
Arsenal rated as Champions League favourites after Real Madrid thrashing
Opta's Champions League projection is based on 10,000 computer run simulations, with an update supplied after this week's first legs.
The computer has been bullish on Arsenal's chances in Europe throughout the season, but never before have they backed the Gunners as favourites. Their stunning performance on Tuesday changed that, with Opta now backing Arteta's men to have a 27.8% chance of winning the Champions League.
They're convinced of Arsenal's progression into the last four (95.7% chance), and rate the Gunners chances of reaching the final at 52.9%. If they complete the job in the Spanish capital next week, Arsenal will face PSG or Aston Villa with a trip to the Allianz Arena at stake.
PSG have been remarkably impressive in 2025, and are no longer recognisable from when they visited the Emirates in October. Luis Enrique's side have a 3-1 lead to hold onto at Villa Park next Tuesday, with Opta backing them as the third-favourites to triumph outright (21.9% chance).
On the other side of the draw, Barcelona are on track to reach the final for the first time in a decade. They're unbeaten in 2025, four points clear at the top of La Liga, and have all but booked their place in the last four. Borussia Dortmund felt their wrath on Wednesday, as they were beaten 4-0 in Catalonia.
Hansi Flick's side are the second favourites to go all the way (25.9% chance), and they're projected to bypass Serie A champions and leaders Inter in the next stage. Simone Inzaghi's Nerazzurri beat Bayern Munich 2-1 away from home in the week, and have a 82.7% chance of progressing. They're a methodical force to be reckoned with, and are the one side that still seem to be going under the radar.