What are Arsenal's chances of winning Premier League title after nightmare weekend?

  • Arsenal endured a nightmare weekend
  • Premier League title chances as low as they've been all season
  • Liverpool have one hand on second title in five years
Arsenal's Premier League title chances slimmed further at the weekend
Arsenal's Premier League title chances slimmed further at the weekend | IAN KINGTON/GettyImages

Arsenal entered the weekend with a great sense of hope, but they exited with existential questions arising.

If you sat down any Gooner on Friday night, perhaps a pint or six deep, they may well have boasted Leslie Knope-like optimism. Sure, the world has conspired against Mikel Arteta's side this season and we certainly haven't given ourselves the best chance of achieving our goals in phase 87 of the project, but Liverpool had kept the door ajar.

Their 2-2 draw at Aston Villa meant the Gunners, with Marouane Merino wreaking havoc up top, had the chance to cut their defict to five points on Saturday. 16th-place West Ham merely stood in their way.

However, instead of enjoying the utopia, Arsenal veered into a dystopian realm. Everything about it was awful, and the 1-0 defeat only aided Liverpool's pursuit of glory in Manchester. Their statement win on Sunday has many tagging Arne Slot's side as champions-elect with three months of the season remaining.

Opta's supercomputer has all but confirmed Liverpool as champions.


Supercomputer rates Arsenal's title chances after awful weekend

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Liverpool followed up Arsenal's defeat by winning comfortably at the Etihad | PAUL ELLIS/GettyImages

After Arsenal's nightmare weekend, Opta now rates their chances of winning the Premier League title at 3.31%. This figure had crept well into double digits after Liverpool's recent blip which included draws at Everton and Villa.

After winning at Manchester City for the first time in a decade with the inevitable Mohamed Salah proving to be the difference again, Liverpool's chances of winning the league are as high as 96.69%. They're expected to finish with 88.19 points - at least ten clear of Arsenal.

The Gunners, however, are not projected to fall off the face of the Earth. Opta still has them finishing second by a comfortable margin. City are expected to reach 67.87 points and conclude the campaign in third, but Arteta's side are currently projected to notch 77.54 - their lowest points tally since 2021/22.

There are still plenty of games left, and both teams have the Champions League knockouts to enjoy, but the weekend did feel distinctly decisive. Even if Liverpool endure a blip before the season's out, this Arsenal team, with their injuries in attack and the flaws they manifested even before they started dropping like flies, aren't built to win game after game.

There's far, far too much to do.

We can hope for a deep Champions League run, but excluding the final 20 minutes at Leicester, Arsenal have served up uninspiring, insipid, and turgid football post-Dubai. Right now, you'd struggle to assert with any authority that this Gunners outfit will bypass PSV in the round of 16, let alone one of the Madrid clubs in the last eight.


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