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Arsenal’s Key Against Barcelona Is Danny Welbeck
By Josh Sippie
Arsenal will be blessed with the return of Danny Welbeck as early as the Hull City FA Cup clash. If this is the case, expect a residual effect against Barcelona.
The solution to Arsenal’s striking problems has finally returned. Danny Welbeck – the man, the myth, the legend – is back in full training after stretching his legs with the Arsenal U21 side. After a few days of rest, Wenger has given everyone at the Emirates a bit of a boost:
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“It is a big possibility [he could be involved against Hull next week],” he said, via Arsenal.com.
With all the faith that Wenger has put in Welbeck, the pressure is going to be squarely on his shoulders to do something with it or feel the sting of social media tauntings.
The prospect of Welbeck returning against Hull City, just three days before our rather large Barcelona clash, is massive. As we saw with Coquelin against Burnley, Wenger has no qualms starting newly-fit returnees in the FA Cup. If he does the same with Welbeck, then all of a sudden Welbeck may be a crucial piece to Arsenal’s Champions League hopes.
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And no, I don’t mean from on the pitch. Danny Welbeck will not start against Barcelona and it would be a surprise to see him play. But that does not mean he will not have an impact. Welbeck has to make his impact against Barcelona from performing against Hull.
Sounds crazy, but hear me out.
Olivier Giroud has proven to be Arsenal’s No. 1 key to victory. I did a piece not long ago about how dependent Arsenal is on this one man. To recap, Arsenal have a 82% chance to win when Giroud contributes to a goal as opposed to a 33% chance when he doesn’t. They score 2.35 goals per 90 when he contributes, 0.73 when he does not.
In short, if Barcelona can shut down Olivier Giroud, they enhance their already enhanced odds of winning by even more.
So what can Arsenal do to ensure that Olivier Giroud is not shut down? Well, nothing is a guarantee, but two things have been proven to light a fire under the big Frenchman’s tush. The first thing is to allow him to absolutely fluff his lines and blow every opportunity (Monaco 1st leg), then feel the brunt of the post-match anger. Step two of that process is to send him back out for the second leg and watch him rip apart one of the best defenses in the world.
That is not a plausible scenario to re-enact going into the Barcelona clash.
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The other motivating factor is competition. Wenger keeps pointing to Welbeck as Giroud’s competition but to this day, we have yet to see it. At least not consistently. By that token, the best thing we can do to prepare Giroud for a fantastic game agaisnt the best team in the world lies in the hands of starting Welbeck against Hull.
It may be a long shot, but maybe, just maybe, if Welbeck can go on a Galatasaray-like run against the Tigers, it will kick up enough dust to bother Giroud. Then, much like what happened earlier in the year with Theo Walcott, he will feel extra compelled to assert his domination in the box.
Giroud had a rough start to the year, but after being benched, he returned to score 18 goals and added two assists in his next 1,427 minutes of play. That translates to a goal every 79 minutes or a contribution every 71 minutes.
Since that time, he has gone 382 minutes with just an assist. Mathematics prevent dividing by zero, so there is no goal per minute number. But there a is contribution number per minute, and that is a contribution every (wait for it) 382 minutes.
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Giroud needs a bit of a nudge, particularly against Barcelona. Nothing would serve as a better nudge than seeing Danny Welbeck look like Thierry Henry on his return from injury.