Arsenal: Statistics prove Gunners need Lucas Torreira

In all competitions, with Lucas Torreira on the field, Arsenal have scored 18 goals while conceding only three. He is needed, and the statistics prove it.

When statistics align with reality, they tell an interesting story. Often, it is our eyes that provide us with the first glimpse of how something may be, and then it is up to statistics to shape it and restructure it.

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But when it comes to defending, that process is not so easy. How can statistics quantify defensive effort? There is no issue on a qualitative level: mettle, steel, resolve, stalwart. We know it when we see it, such as with Lucas Torreira, and any time we are amiss, the match commentator is good for setting us straight.

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But when you dig into the data, tackles, blocks, interceptions and clearances all become misleading. Teams that ship goals absorb pressure, and teams soaking up pressure have inflated defensive statistics. Check for yourself. In the Premier League, four of the top five players in clearances represent the bottom half, with two occupying relegation spots. The exception proves the rule.

As Paulo Maldini once brilliantly said, ‘if I have to make a tackle, then I have already made a mistake.’ Defensive statistics rarely paint the whole picture. They are, then, counter-intuitive: The best defenders, like Maldini, would appear “modest” on paper.

There is an element of truth to this. Why go to ground or stick in a toe, when you can muscle a player off the ball and shepherd it out for a throw? Consider again Torreira. Glancing over his statistics also highlights standout individual performances: six interceptions against Fulham; three timely clearances against an active Watford side; the match-winning assist as a sub against Cardiff. But averaged out per game, the stats resemble more a masterclass in modesty.

The best way to analyze the impact of a defensive player might be to actually remove them from the equation. How does the team look without him? How does his insertion alter that perception? For Arsenal and Torreira, the results are striking.

In all competitions, taking substitutions into account, Arsenal scored 11 goals and conceded 10 without Lucas Torreira on the field. It bears repeating that they won all but two of those games, but the underlying statistics of the performances suggested that the results were fortunate.

Insert Lucas Torreira and the magic happens: Arsenal have scored 18 goals while conceding only three. It becomes even clearer in the breakdown. Three away wins and two clean sheets in the league. A clean sheet against Qarabag. And the most ominous: Rested after 45 minutes against Vorskla, the Gunners proceeded to concede two soft goals.

If there is a better argument to quantify the impact Torreira has on Arsenal, I am interested in reading it. The statistics indeed align with reality. The story is indeed interesting. And the working title is has a nice ring to it: “First Name on the Team Sheet.”