Arsenal: Statistics show Alex Iwobi should be in the starting XI

Arsenal’s trio of wingers Alex Iwobi, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have played enough minutes in the Premier League to create a reliable statistical image of their traits and quirks. How they stack up on aggregate points to an interesting conclusion.

Alex Iwobi should start for Arsenal against Bournemouth on the 25th. Under the guidance of manager Unai Emery the 22-year-old Nigerian is showing both the confidence and more importantly the willingness to take on players.

The next phase of his development is learning how to pick out a pass after beating the man in front of him. Or at the very least, getting a shot on target. And the best way to learn this is to continue playing with the first team.

This is no slight to Henrikh Mkhitaryan or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. We know “Mkhi” would be more comfortable in the No. 10 role and that both he and “Auba” are doing what they are asked in order to get on the field. But simply putting your best players on the pitch and expecting good results only works for so long. And very idea it is not in accordance with what we know about Unai Emery.

I also understand there is a deeper managerial aspect to this discussion. The Arsenal gaffer will want experience and work rate in the side for the season defining matches looming on the horizon. This points to Henrikh Mkhitaryan because he tracks back defensively, helps out with the high press and can link up with midfield in possession. But that still leaves one starting spot open.

Alex Iwobi is good enough to start. But that sure is a poor reason all things considered. He is also still learning. A major part of that learning curve is purging what he was taught in the past and replacing it with Emery’s vision. The missing ingredient for this is playing time. That would be reason enough if the season was already lost. However after a statistical breakdown and comparison of each “winger” a strong case for starting the youngster ends up making itself.

Because statistically, Iwobi and Mkhi are essentially the same player, and that player looks far better than Auba. Other than Auba’s October goal barrage, there is very little on paper to justify playing him out of position in the advanced midfield three.

Defensively the sample size is small but Iwobi and Mkhi match up, again outshining Auba. Both should be hungry enough to put forth more effort to help out the team. And that should go without saying but such is the state of the club after so many years of complacency.

In passing stats Iwobi puts in more crosses per game and has one more through ball. Total passes, passing accuracy and key passes are eerily similar. When you dive deeper into the offensive stats there is finally one glaring stand out: Iwobi makes more dribbles per game than his wing mates combined. It is the one outlier separating them.

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Crunching the numbers, Iwobi averages one successful dribble for every 35 minutes of Premier League action (14 in 484 minutes). For comparison, Mkhi has not completed a dribble since Leicester City. With those dribbles comes loss of possession. Between poor control and dispossession Iwobi loses the ball four times per game. Such is the give and take. While it is dangerous to rationalize, I cannot help but wonder which the fans would prefer: a player giving the ball away in midfield twice per game or Iwobi losing the ball four times in the final third while driving at players? I prefer the endeavor.

That in and of itself should be reason enough for Iwobi to start: if the difference in experience is not producing a statistical advantage then why not go with youth? Especially with a new manager in what is a year for developing talent, assessing options and moving forward next summer. Emery’s stated goals this year are progress and improvement – any silverware picked up along the way is a blessing – so why not Iwobi?

Of course we can use the same logic against Mkhitaryan: if Auba’s goals and the potential for goals is too important to ignore, then Iwobi should start ahead of the Armenian by virtue of offering slightly more by way of his dribbling.

Either way, the statistics and what we see with our own eyes bears this out: Alex Iwobi should start. He is the best player for the position. He is the most active player for the position. Henrikh Mkhitaryan should start on the other side. And Auba should be that player who comes on after 60 minutes and puts the fear into opposing center halves. Auba the Gabon super sub already has four goals and an assist from the bench this season. He can change a game against tired legs. Certainly he can be more effective as an attacking sub than the usual suspect, yeah?

In thee or four years the heart of the Arsenal midfield could easily be Lucas Torreira in his defensive role, Matteo Guendouzi as the holder and Alex Iwobi as the No. 10. Add in Reiss Nelson and Emile Smith-Rowe on the wings and we could easily have a new golden generation. The sooner we get started on accelerating their development the brighter our future becomes.

So if the expectations this year are a European place and progressive improvement why not start the players we wish to progressively improve? Enter Alex Iwobi.