Assessing Arsenal’s Top Four Hopes – Rival Analysis

It’s fair to say this season hasn’t started as we expected.

We’re about a quarter through the 2020/21 campaign, and the table looks… really weird. Two of the ‘big six’ are in the top four places, two, including Arsenal, are below tenth, Man City are tenth, last year’s relegation scrappers all occupy the upper echelons of the table, the list goes on.

This season has seen records broken (already), an increased prevalence of VAR controversy, greater success playing away from home due to the lack of fans, and more upsets than a toddler in a world without cookies. And so, at this weird quarter-season international break, I’m stepping back to reflect on the long-term.

More from Pain in the Arsenal

• 3 standout players from 1-0 victory over Everton
• 3 positives & negatives from Goodison Park victory
• Arsenal vs PSV preview: Prediction, team news & lineups
• 3 talking points from Arsenal’s victory at Goodison Park
• Mikel Arteta provides Gabriel Martinelli injury update after Everton win

The question at hand: how will Arsenal fare in the top-four fight this season? In our pre-season predictions, most of our writers predicted that they would finish between fourth and sixth, a prediction that I still stand by, despite a rocky run of form. But the most important factor to consider in the course of accomplishing that goal is, who will we have to beat to get there?

Excepting the past year and a half, I would usually be able to write about the ‘big six’, and end the article there. However, that’s just not true this season. Leicester, Southampton, Aston Villa and Everton are all in the fight, not to mention Wolves hanging around as they typically do. So, much to my joy, I’ll be doubling that number within this piece. Here’s Arsenal’s rival analysis for the ten clubs standing between them and a top-four finish.

Everton

The Toffees’ first eight matchweeks have been opposite ends of the spectrum. Having posted 12 points from their first four matches, with Dominic Calvert-Lewin in particular setting the world alight – and leading many of us to wonder why we don’t have a striker who can score – they’ve turned 180º, drawing the Merseyside derby at home, then losing three on the bounce.

James Rodriguez has inevitably got injured again, however briefly, and after Richarlison’s red card in the derby, the team has ceased clicking. They’re parked in seventh at the moment, and while they may not continue their electric form for the rest of the season, they’re likely to be an obstacle as Arsenal look to move back up the table.

Arsenal have yet to play against Carlo Ancelotti’s men, and our first meeting against the team in blue comes on Saturday, December 19th, as Goodison Park. These are two teams who don’t tend to draw, with just two from 13 meetings since the 2014/15 season. Arsenal have won nine of those ties, but considering the topsy-turvy nature of this season…

Predicted Finish: 8th.

Liverpool

One of the most interesting case-studies in English football at the moment. They’re certainly nowhere near as dominant as they were this time last season, and with practicaly their entire defence out injured, they could be made to pay in coming weeks. As proven by Villa, their right flank is especially susceptible to the counter.

That being said, they’re still 99-point, Champions League and title-winning Liverpool. Counting them out will be a hard sell, especially with Diogo Jota and Naby Keita coming off the bench. Gini Wjnaldum is also in sparkling form for the Netherlands at the moment, and should lead the midfield upon returning.

Arsenal lost 3-1 to them in our first of two Anfield encounters in the space of a week, the second of which we won. But the Champions face a difficult run of form before Christmas – Leicester, Wolves, Brighton, Fulham, and Spurs make up five games in four weeks, not to mention their renewed Champions League efforts in a week’s time. Expect them to drop more points, but eventually re-surge into winning form after the holidays.

Predicted finish: 2nd.