The one thing Arsenal can’t afford to do against Tottenham

There are a plethora of memorable results in the history of the North London Derby. Arsenal can lay claim to the most historic of them, although in recent years it’s sadly Tottenham who’ve held the upper hand.

It’s now five consecutive seasons where Arsenal have finished below their rivals in the Premier League table. Even the 2015/16 campaign went down to the final fixture of the season with Spurs’ hilarious capitulation away at Newcastle providing some beloved schadenfreude.

Ahead of Sunday’s meeting at the Emirates Stadium Arsenal have an opportunity to right some early season wrongs and leapfrog Nuno Espirito Santo’s side in the table. Win by two clear goals and any three points will be extra sweet.

While form usually goes out of the window in this mouthwatering encounter, there are some statistical traits that can’t be shirked. A worrying trend that throughout Mikel Arteta’s tenure hasn’t been scaled.

The one thing Arsenal can’t afford to do against Tottenham in the Premier League’s North London Derby is concede the first goal

Arsenal can’t concede the first goal.

It’s now over 20 months that Arteta has been in the job and during that entire time he has never seen his side come back from trailing at half-time to win a Premier League game. Not once. In total it is 18 matches played in which the Gunners have been losing at the break, with 14 losses and four draws being the final results.

That is atrocious.

Of course, Arsenal have conceded the first goal and rallied before half-time. But, even still, the danger of falling behind is too great. Funnily enough, scoring the first goal in this fixture isn’t usually a determining factor, however, given the current state of both teams it’s never been more crucial.

Arsenal have only netted twice in the Premier League this season with Spurs scoring three times, although the latter has registered the lowest overall xG so far of all 20 clubs. Tottenham have also created the fewest chances and have recorded the second fewest shots. Arsenal are fifth for chances created and 12th for xG.

Both managers are under pressure and neither side is firing on all cylinders, thus the opening goal in this game has never felt more deciding. The Gunners boast the home advantage with a packed crowd giving all the players the extra 5%, but seeing how uniform and structured Arsenal’s play is under Arteta plays a key role in their inability to overturn deficits.

Teams sit back, block lanes and soak up pressure, with a lack of centrality and penetration due to the overly choreographed sequences bearing little fruit.

That has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks with chances, and centrality, more forthcoming, yet as is most often the case form goes out of the window.

And this torrid record of trailing at half-time under Arteta is spun on its head by the contrasting record when Arsenal have been leading at half-time: in only one of the 23 matches where this has happened under the manager have the team gone on to lose (W18-D4-L1). That was against Chelsea at home in 2019.

How tentative with the home side be? We know the pattern by now of Arsenal dominating the ball, missing a glorious chance and then being hit on the break, so getting the mentality right pre-match where the shackles are off but the focus remains will be key to grabbing the opening goal.

Trail at half-time and we all know what follows.