Leeds vs Arsenal: Home side’s frailties an antidote for away woes

Strike while the iron is hot! As victory in midweek propelled them into the top four for the first time in 14 months, Arsenal will be aiming to consolidate their hard-earned position in the Premier League this weekend – Covid permitting – when they travel north to take on Leeds United.

Second-season syndrome has well and truly taken hold of the Yorkshire club this campaign, with a combination of terrible injury luck and poor results – culminating in their 7-0 annihilation at Manchester City on Tuesday – leaving them in real danger of relegation.

And while recent away outings suggest a hostile Elland Road could pose a problem for our bright-eyed youngsters, the home side’s depleted ranks and adventurous structure should provide enough encouragement for us to claim all three points.

Although injuries are almost an occupational hazard at this level, and the festive schedule’s impact on squad resources is already well-established, Leeds’ thin squad means they will be an extremely vulnerable proposition on Saturday. Compounded by further withdrawals and suspensions at the Etihad in midweek, Marcelo Bielsa’s side will be without eight players for our visit, and their exiguous options all over the pitch will severely hamper their typically high-octane ‘murderball’ philosophy.

Leeds’ injury-ravaged squad and risky tactical set-up should help Arsenal grab a much-needed Premier League away win on Saturday

Such deficiencies in personnel, alongside the likely prospect of reduced intensity, are something our offensive dynamic is poised to capitalise on. Recent matches suggest Saka, Odegaard and Martinelli have developed a great understanding of each other’s game, and their constant positional interchange, movement off the ball and willingness to stretch opposing backlines should prove too much for our ad hoc hosts.

In addition to the threat posed by the attackers, Arsenal will also hope to use their ball-playing centre-backs to exploit Bielsa’s questionable man-marking system.

Often employing a 4-1-4-1 formation complete with a touch-tight marking approach, Leeds’ preference for a lone-striker frequently results in the opposition’s central defenders having the space and numerical superiority to venture forward and initiate attacks, with later attempts to engage the ball-carrier causing them to leave vast swathes of space in behind.

The pitfalls of this style have been emphatically exposed in recent meetings, including the influence of Gabriel and David Luiz during our comprehensive 4-2 league win in February and Ben White’s swashbuckling display during October’s Carabao Cup clash, and their persistence with the set-up – even when faced with mounting casualties – indicates a repeat performance is worth exploring on Saturday.

Despite the growing sense of positivity in north London and the substantial improvement in home form following last season’s disappointment, the Gunners’ head into the weekend with only two Premier League away wins on the board and must address their displays on the road if they are to sustain a European challenge in the new year.

Considering the many issues our hosts are contending with, this match presents Arsenal with a brilliant chance to do just that, while piling more pressure on rivals when they eventually return to domestic action. It is an opportunity we cannot afford to pass up.