Arsenal: 4 reasons top four race is not over

If sat down and given two seconds to answer the question, then no, Arsenal most likely will not finish in the Premier League top four this season. In the space of a week the mood has shifted dramatically.

Flying high after another battling performance saw the Gunners deservedly edge past Aston Villa, just 180 minutes of football later and the talk is around whether or not a top six place is even secure.

Their two games in hand over Tottenham evaporated without any points to show for it and now, having still played one fewer game, they trail Spurs by three points with a considerably worse goal difference.

Then factor in how damaging it is proving to be without Thomas Partey and Kieran Tierney and the situation becomes bleaker.

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4 reasons Arsenal can still make it into the Premier League top four ahead of Tottenham despite damaging back-to-back defeats

Keeping up to pace with Antonio Conte’s team will prove to be a seismic task. The vastly differing trajectories of the sides coupled with the absences of key men is putting Champions League football is serious risk. The odds are stacked firmly against Arsenal.

Is it game over? The table says no. That’s the angle to look at it from.

Despite being firmly up against it, there are four reasons to keep the faith. It’s thin faith, admittedly, but faith nevertheless.

It’s not over until it’s over, even if the cards will all have to fall Arsenal’s way.

1. Tottenham’s Unsustainable Scoring Rates

The sheer quantity of goals Tottenham are scoring is cause for concern. Of course it is. They have 12 in their last three matches and the form of Harry Kane and Heung-min Son, as well as new arrival Dejan Kulusevski, has them flying in the Premier League.

What might offer some reassurance is that, on the surface, these scoring rates would appear unsustainable.

These 12 goals have come from their last 15 shots on target. Seemingly every effort on goal turns into a goal. Meanwhile, Aston Villa had seven on target in the first half of their 4-0 defeat and failed to convert any of them. Spurs have even had the most own goals in their favour this season.

The caveat to this is that when you have two world class forwards as Conte does, these numbers can be sustainable. The best strikers around don’t need multiple efforts at goal to find the back of the net.

Son has 17 Premier League goals from 12.02 xG while Lacazette has four goals from 7.45 xG, and two of those were penalties. While there isn’t a great deal of encouragement from what is happening in the wrong side of north London, maybe, just maybe, the data will catch up on Spurs soon enough.

It’s just a shame that their fixtures won’t make it harder for them.

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