Arsenal have one growing issue to address vs Newcastle

Models like xG are only useful data points if there is a trend. Single game xG means nothing most of the time. In the case of Arsenal, while the sample size is small, something has happened over the past two games that they need to look into.

At present it feels like every shot Arsenal face results in a goal. That’s because they pretty much have.

Prior to facing Tottenham on Thursday the Gunners had conceded with 50% of the shots on target they faced. Going three goals down inside 47 minutes, Spurs had continued that trend with them scoring with each effort on target.

They would go on to have three more in the game, meaning Aaron Ramsdale’s unwanted record of conceding with every other shot he’s faced across the last ten games has carried on.

https://twitter.com/SkySportsPL/status/1524833109736312842

Arsenal have one issue to address vs Newcastle that can’t be allowed to develop into a trend having conceded two replica corner goals

But in the defeat to Spurs and the narrow 2-1 victory over Leeds just prior, there has been an element of deja vu. Cruising to a win against the ten men of Leeds, Arsenal let their hosts back into the game when Diego Llorente fired in unmarked at the back post from a corner.

Junior Firpo made a run away from the near post, winning the header which he flicked on for Llorente to score. Arsenal had already conceded their first goal of the season from a corner against Southampton four games prior, but that was at least in the second phase.

Fast forward to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and history repeated itself.

This time is was Rodrigo Bentancur who peeled away from the near corner of the six-yard box to glance a header towards the back stick, one that Harry Kane was able to direct goalwards, unmarked, with a diving header.

Having gone the whole season without conceding from the first phase of a corner, and just once overall, Arsenal have now let in two of very similar variety two matches running.

Of course, there are subtle differences, like Arsenal having just been reduced to ten men and heavily under pressure at this stage, but the point remains.

There is no way of knowing whether this is simply a matter of losing the first header and being caught out. Given the Gunners’ incredible record this season, there is credence to that idea. But to prevent it from developing into something worse it has to be looked at.

We can be sure that Newcastle will be seeing it as a weakness. They’ll be analysing the game and no doubt they will be looking at a similar corner routine when the two sides meet in the Premier League, so whether that can be prevented by having someone on the back post or by simply being more prepared at the near post, it needs to be examined in the build-up.