How can Norwich pull off a miracle & help Arsenal into the Champions League?

3. Low block & ride your luck

Contrary to the view of some, Conte’s Spurs are not counter-attacking merchants. While they do excel against sides that afford them space in transition, they’ve evolved into a side that can retain possession in the face of pressure and defend their territory for large swathes without ever losing their intensity or focus.

In short, they look like your typical Antonio Conte side.

They’re far from perfect, however, and their struggles against opponents that match Conte’s 3-4-3 were on full display in April as they fell to a home defeat against Brighton before drawing away at Brentford.

Their two games against Burnley in 2022, meanwhile, manifested their relative woes against deeper defensive blocks. Although, they were still able to muster an xG of 2.0 last Sunday, depicting some improvement in this regard. Dejan Kulusevski has added greater ambiguity in the final third, while Conte’s use of Emerson Royal in a narrower wing-back function has immediately paid off.

Nevertheless, if Norwich are to miraculously prevail on Sunday, they have to limit the number of high-quality chances they surrender. By sitting deeper, they’re giving themselves a greater chance of frustrating the away side. Still, Burnley were as well-organised as they could’ve been last Sunday and they were still reliant on some Nick Pope heroics to keep the score down.

Norwich will need similar brilliance from Angus Gunn (although I’d recommend starting Tim Krul considering his history with the Lilywhites) in this one.

However, even if the Canaries shut the away side out, a 0-0 stalemate won’t be enough for the Gunners. They need the hosts to score! That in itself is borderline miraculous.

Norwich have mustered a league-low 20.7 open play xG this season, and are facing a defence on Sunday that has conceded just five goals in their last ten outings. To breach Hugo Lloris in this one, Norwich will be reliant on top scorer Teemu Pukki and a rare lapse in the Spurs backline. The visitors will hand the Canaries some control given their tendency to defend vigorously in a mid-block, and there is scope for Norwich to sustain some pressure on the Tottenham defence.

Overall, their moments in the final third will be limited, and they’ll need plenty of luck if they’re to score and win on Sunday. Arsenal fans will be hoping that Conte hasn’t taken the Spursy out of Tottenham just yet but a capitulation from his side seems highly unlikely. Dean Smith’s Canaries are Conte’s wet dream from a stylistic perspective.

But hey, this is football and we’ve certainly seen stranger things happen.