What can Arsenal fans expect from Sporting CP in Thursday’s first leg?

This Arsenal side had no reason to fear anybody when the Europa League round of 16 draw was made two weeks ago.

Still, there were a couple of sides supporters would’ve preferred to avoid. Italian outfits Juventus and AS Roma could’ve proved frustrating opposition, while Union Berlin are made from similarly stern stuff.

Sporting CP were not among the sides supporters didn’t particularly fancy. Why? They’ve got Champions League pedigree and a talented bunch of players led by one of Europe’s most promising young managers. Oh, and they took five points off Spurs in their two meetings last autumn. Although, I suppose that’s hardly a massive achievement.

Nevertheless, there’s plenty to suggest that this will not be a walk in the park for Arteta’s men. Here’s what you can expect from Sporting when the Gunners make the trip to Lisbon on Thursday evening.

What can Arsenal fans expect from Sporting CP in Thursday’s first leg?

2021/22 was a strong season for Amorim’s side as they finished second in the Primeira Liga with 85 points, but the losses of Matheus Nunes and Joao Palhinha in midfield have seemingly hit hard. Heading into Thursday’s contest, Sporting sit fourth in the league and 15 points adrift of an excellent Benfica side which sit among the very best Portuguese outfits of the modern day.

After a difficult first half to the 2022/23 campaign, they then lost Pedro Porro to Tottenham in the January transfer window. However, their form has picked up in recent weeks, and they’ll take on the Gunners with a bit of momentum behind them. They’re unbeaten in five games; a run that includes the 4-0 thumping of Midtjylland in their knockout play-off round second leg that saw them into the round of 16.

The statistics suggest Sporting are a completely different team in the Primeira Liga compared to when they compete in Europe. The difference in quality between the teams competing at the top of the Portuguese top flight and the rest of the division is pretty stark. So, most weeks, Sporting will be expected to seize the initiative and attempt to control proceedings from minute one.

Only Benfica (7.9) can top their PPDA in the Primeira Liga this season (8.5). Moreover, Sporting’s crosstown rivals are the only side that betters the number of ten+ passing sequences (439 to 323) and. build-up attacks (95 to 66). These figures would suggest Amorim is a coach that preaches aggressive high pressing and patient build-up play.

The eye test certainly supports the latter. Sporting love to utilise depth as a means to advance. Their 3-4-3 shape alters to a back four in the build-up phase, with Amorim committing plenty of bodies to the first phase to ensure his side can retain possession in deeper areas. The aim is to draw the opposition out, compromise their vertical compactness, and transition quickly via the half-spaces where their two key playmakers typically function. Thus, Sporting’s style isn’t too dissimilar from an Antonio Conte side. Amorim needs technical players in his backline for his principles to successfully manifest.

However, the Leões performance in the Champions League this season paints a different picture and depicts Amorim’s pragmatism. Only two sides won the ball high up the pitch fewer times than Sporting in the group stage, while just three teams completed fewer sequences of ten+ passes. They evolved into midblock specialists that pressed sporadically and sought to progress upfield rapidly in possession. It was all about the counter-attack.

Arsenal should expect to face the latter version of Sporting on Thursday evening even if Mikel Arteta heavily rotates his starting XI. While there’s an onus on the hosts to take an advantage into the reverse fixture, Amorim will be content with allowing the Gunners to enjoy plenty of the ball and hoping to transition efficiently via the dazzling feet of Marcus Edwards and leading goalscorer Pedro Goncalves.

The Portuguese side will not be overwhelmed by Arteta’s side, and an intriguing tactical duel awaits. I would be extremely confident of Arsenal winning both legs pretty comfortably if they played something close to their strongest XI, but that won’t be the case. Thus, I envisage this tie perhaps being closer than some expect and the Gunners may have some work to do at the Emirates if they’re to advance in this competition.