Why Gabriel Martinelli will continue to outperform his xG

The steady rise of Gabriel Martinelli from a frantic, fearless 18-year-old to a key cog in the Arsenal machine has been a joy to watch, and he is only just getting started.

From January 2022, Mikel Arteta started to trust Martinelli as a starter, after a reluctance to use him previously. Since then, the young Brazilian hasn’t looked back and with each game, seems to reach a new level.

Martinelli has all the raw assets required to be a star, and with very strict instructions, Arteta has got him to refine these and learn to play the game with a level head, and not at 100pmh as we saw early in his Arsenal career.

That composure and maturity are the single biggest improvements in Martinelli’s game because he’s always had the ability. The calmness has led to a greater level of composure on the ball and is a huge reason why his actual goal-scoring number this season massively outperforms his expected goals (xG).

Why Gabriel Martinelli will continue to outperform his xG

To date, Martinelli has 14 goals and is just one shy of Marcus Rashford in the Premier League. However, he’s accumulated an xG of just 8.5. For some, that would suggest an unsustainable run of goals, but with Martinelli, it feels like the opposite.

Take Arsenal’s 5-0 win against Nottingham Forest as an example. Martinelli scored one of the goals of the day by fearlessly attacking Bukayo Saka’s cross and firing home a header but finished the day with a 0.27 xG. The same happened against Crystal Palace when he threw himself into a mix of bodies to open the scoring for Arsenal but finished the game with an xG 0f 0.39.

Both of those goals involved bravery and determination to get into the right position and throw his body in the way of oncoming defenders. That is what Martinelli is all about. He doesn’t wait for chances to come to him. He puts himself in dangerous areas and creates problems for defenders out of nothing.

Similarly, on Sunday at Anfield, Martinelli came away with a 0.15 xG but scored the opening goal. Again, that goal came from his bravely putting himself among three defenders and an onrushing keeper to score.

At times, xG can be a good indicator of how long players can retain their form in front of goal, but for Martinelli, it feels like he will continue to outperform it, largely due to his bravery to put himself into the mix.

Alongside this, there is also his spread of goals. They are all very different, with seven coming with his right foot, four with his left and three with his head. 13 of his 14 goals have come from inside the box.

His dexterity with both feet, his threat with his head and his finishing ability mean that he is always going to be a threat in the box, and it’s likely that he will continue to outperform his xG numbers as he continues to refine and develop his game.