How badly have Arsenal been affected by William Saliba’s injury?

I don’t want to think about that night against Sporting CP ever again (after this piece). 

When Gabriel Martinelli had his penalty saved by Antonio Adan which knocked Arsenal out of the Europa League, it didn’t take long for supporters to get over the disappointment. While a European trophy would’ve been nice, the Gunners had bigger fish to fry.

Their lead over Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table was, at the time, commanding, but a relaxed schedule was required if they were to have any chance of holding the Citizens off.

However, six weeks on from their European exit, Arsenal’s domestic position of strength has disintegrated rapidly. Their healthy margin over City, which at times extended to eight points, has been cut down to two after they were thumped 4-1 by Pep Guardiola’s side, who have also played two games fewer, on Wednesday night.

Suddenly, the title triumph we were all dreaming of, and one that was seemingly written in the stars following last-gasp victories over Aston Villa and Bournemouth, looks unlikely. So, how did we get here?

How badly have Arsenal been affected by William Saliba’s injury?

That bloody Sporting game will not be remembered in Gooner quarters for Martinelli’s miss or Pedro Goncalves’ halfway line strike, but for William Saliba’s injury instead.

The young French defender, who has taken the Premier League by storm this season, limped off early on in proceedings and is yet to return to action.

Saliba’s lower back injury had not only crippled the player, but Mikel Arteta’s side as a collective.

Takehiro Tomiyasu’s injury, picked up in the same game, has only exacerbated Saliba’s absence. Had Arsenal only been without Saliba in recent weeks, Arteta would’ve had the luxury of deploying either Tomiyasu or Ben White – both technically proficient and athletic defenders – alongside Gabriel. Instead, though, he’s been forced to turn to Rob Holding.

Saliba’s brilliance meant the Englishman’s first Premier League start of the season didn’t arrive until 19 March when Arsenal put Crystal Palace to the sword at the Emirates. Holding performed well that day, and it’s fair to say he hasn’t been disastrous individually since coming into the team.

What he has done, however, is compromise the Gunners’ collective. With Holding in the side, Arsenal cannot build up play with the same efficiency, nor can they hold the high line that had allowed them to suffocate opponents in their own half when Saliba was in the team. They’ve been forced to play deeper since Holding’s come in, and several of those around him, including Thomas Partey and Gabriel, have seemingly been disrupted by his presence. However, the pair cannot solely blame their recent drops in form solely on the longtime Gunner.

Nevertheless, the stats depict just how much Arsenal have been affected by Saliba’s injury and subsequent absence.

With Saliba in the side, Arsenal won 22 of 32 games (68.75 win %), notched 2.22 points per game in the Premier League, and were conceding, on average, 1.09 goals a game.

Without him, their win percentage has dropped to 58.3%, they’ve registered 2.0 points per game in the league, and have conceded 1.2 goals per game. Since he succumbed to his injury, Arsenal have failed to keep a clean sheet and conceded over 39% of all Premier League goals they’ve conceded this season – in just six games!

These numbers paint a clear picture of just how badly Saliba’s been missed. However, we must note that it’s likely Arsenal would’ve succumbed to the sky-blue juggernaut with or without their star defender on Wednesday night given the Gunners’ structural woes elsewhere. But, they would’ve likely entered the game with a bigger buffer than they did. Their three consecutive draws heading into the game is where we’ll conclude the title was lost when it’s all said and done.