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With Manchester City potentially set to lose their standing as the top dog in the Premier League, Arsenal are primed to take their place. Who will join the Gunners at the top table in the immediate short term is an uncertain question.
City are expected to have significant sanctions imposed on them after being found guilty of breaching over 100 financial regulations. The best-case outcome for the Citizens seems to be a major points deduction, which would relegate them to the Championship. However, a doomsday scenario is certainly on the cards, with an immediate expulsion from the English top flight and rejection from the EFL leaving the north-west club in peril.
Either way, it appears likely that City won't be competing for the title in the foreseeable future. Given they've dominated English football over the last 15 years, there will be a vacancy for the Gunners to snatch as the powerhouse of the Premier League once the Manchester club are sanctioned.
With all the other top clubs experiencing turbulent periods under new regimes, Arsenal are the obvious club to reign supreme once again this term. However, could a surprise package challenge them for the league?
Why the rest of the top six aren't contenders this season
The rest of the traditional 'top six' don't look well set up to attack the title.
Liverpool are the most likely candidates, but the early signs under Andoni Iraola haven't been promising. They've been surprisingly solid defensively given their lack of depth in the backline, but have looked meek in attack. Florian Wirtz is yet to come good, and thus, there is a distinct lack of creativity going forward. They cannot rely on Dominik Szoboszlai screamers all season.
The Reds have a relatively high floor because of their defensive quality, but will likely be capped at a comfortable Champions League qualification season.
Meanwhile, Chelsea have some of the worst defensive metrics in the league so far this term. They're bound to improve under Xabi Alonso as they grow accustomed to the new manager's demands and as they go through the season with no European football, but the leap from tenth to the top four is significant to make in one season.
Manchester United already look to be struggling with the influx of European fixtures. Bruno Fernandes is unlikely to replicate his heroics from last term when he has to play every three days, while Michael Carrick's side's defensive fragility has already seen them leak eight goals in the league so far. They don't look like a team capable of pushing Arsenal.
As for Tottenham, ha.
Brentford might be Arsenal's biggest challengers
Arsenal currently top the Premier League's expected goals difference per 90 table (via FotMob). The Gunners' attack has been slightly above average, but as was the case last season, their defensive strength blows the competition out of the water.
In at number two in this table isn't City. It's Brentford.
Rank | Team | Non-Penalty xGD/90 (after 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
1 | Arsenal | 0.9 |
2 | Brentford | 0.72 |
3 | Man City | 0.62 |
4 | Man Utd | 0.46 |
5 | Liverpool | 0.46 |
6 | Brighton | 0.42 |
The Bees have enjoyed an outstanding start to the new campaign, dismantling both Tottenham and Chelsea at the Gtech Community Stadium. Keith Andrews' side has a solid defensive base, while their quality in forward areas and potency from dead-ball situations makes them one of the most difficult teams to play in the league.
It's difficult to foresee a club of their stature challenging for the title, but it's not impossible. They already finished above the likes of Newcastle, Spurs and Chelsea last season, none of whom look like bridging that gap this campaign.
Meanwhile, United, Aston Villa, Brighton, Bournemouth and Liverpool, all of whom were noticeably better than them last term, have European fixtures to contend with.
The Premier League is so attritional these days, so having an advantage in this area is monumental. Brentford's data-led approach to recruitment, style of play and conditioning means they might actually be better suited to competing with Arsenal this season.
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