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Arsenal travels to the Spanish capital this week with the hope of finishing the job against Real Madrid. Fans don't need reminding of how the first leg went but allow us the pleasure of doing so anyway; the Gunners won 3-0, with two incredible free kicks scored by Declan Rice. In many ways, the first leg couldn't have gone better for Arsenal.
However, the 3-0 advantage counts for nothing if Arsenal lets it slip in the second leg. Admittedly, there is that innate dread of never feeling comfortable as an Arsenal fan, even despite the improvements made over the last few seasons. This is especially the case against Real Madrid.
Nevertheless, looking at the three-goal advantage objectively, Arsenal is in a powerful position to stake their claim in the semifinal. The semifinal opponents will be decided tonight but it looks like PSG will make their way to the penultimate tie, holding a 3-1 lead over Aston Villa currently.
Real Madrid's chances of eliminating Arsenal increase by 125%
So, the chances of a Real Madrid comeback are slim. However, this doesn't mean that we should overlook Real's chances. Indeed, they are Real Madrid after all, so they will always feel like there is a chance. As much as we are in a positive position, that confidence from Real Madrid should be monitored from an Arsenal standpoint.
According to stat experts Opta (via 433 on X), Real Madrid's chances of progressing in this tie have increased. After the initial 3-0 thumping at the Emirates Stadium, Real Madrid only had a 4% chance of reaching the semi-finals. Since last week, the likelihood has increased by 125%, and now Real Madrid has a 9% chance of eliminating Arsenal.
From a fan perspective, it is hard to see why. Over the weekend, Arsenal experienced no new injuries and while only one point was picked up in the Premier League, the Gunners' squad rotation was viewed as a net-positive and a win in itself.
On the other hand, Real Madrid had a good showing over the weekend. Despite playing with a man less for a large part of the game before Alaves also had a player sent off, Real secured the victory. It is worth noting that Kylian Mbappe's suspension doesn't apply to the Champions League, much to Arsenal's annoyance.
So, should Arsenal feel confident about progressing to the Champions League semifinal? Absolutely they should. However, the Gunners mustn't be complacent and act like the job is already done; it's not.