Real Madrid's pain could become Arsenal's gain

Real Madrid's selection crisis ahead of the Man City tie could actually be great news for Arsenal. Think about it, if Man City can progress past Real Madrid in the Champions League, it only adds more fixtures into their already-busy schedule, which may give Arsenal an even larger edge in the Premier League title race.

Amid Manchester City dropping seven points behind Arsenal in the title race and complaining about refereeing decisions, there is some good news for the blue half of Manchester. Ahead of their Champions League clash with Real Madrid, los merengues are going through a full-blown injury crisis. 

Rodrygo has already suffered a season-ending ACL tear. Jude Bellingham is expected to be out until next month with a hamstring issue. Kylian Mbappé’s status is unknown due to a knee sprain that has been bothering him for a while now. Further back in the formation, Éder Militão and Dani Ceballos will also miss the City tie, and David Alaba (signed up as a utility player for just these occasions) is hurt, too.

Real Madrid would do Arsenal a favour by bowing out of the Champions League early (again)

All this spells good news for City’s prospects to advance past the round of 16. So what is this doing on an Arsenal site? If City are distracted by their Champions League play or (less likely) consciously decide that the Premier League is unwinnable, and they should focus on Europe, that in turn makes good news for the Gunners’ hopes for a first league title in more than 20 years.

Even if City were to sail past Real, they’d be up against either Atalanta or (more likely) Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals, which would occupy a good deal of their attention. Of course, Arsenal have their own Champions League matches to worry about, but they have a much easier path on paper, with Bayer Leverkusen in the round of 16 followed by either Sporting Lisbon or Bodø/Glimt, should they progress that far.

Then again, there’s reason for caution among Arsenal fans. Even with all the injuries, Real freaking Madrid still has enough talent to prevail in a Champions League tie, with Thibaut Courtois in the net and Vinícius Júnior able to cut through any defense. If City do progress past the Spanish powerhouses, they’ll avoid the demoralizing effects of being knocked out, and it may encourage them to stay focused on a push for the league title.

Arsenal fans can spin out what-if scenarios until the World Cup starts, but it probably behooves the team to focus on what it can control. Their next two league matches are at home, and a Carabao Cup final against City awaits.

In April, they face City again in the league at the Etihad. Win that, and they could put the Premier League title out of realistic reach or in the bag entirely. The Gunners are in the enviable position of knowing that if they keep collecting three points as they did at Brighton, their business will take care of itself.