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Despite Saturday's defeat to Bournemouth, Arsenal's hopes of finishing in the Premier League's top five are not severely under threat.
The Gunners have made a mess of their domestic run-in, with Mikel Arteta keen to put all his eggs in the club's Champions League basket. A memorable two-legged triumph over 15-time winners Real Madrid meant Arsenal progressed into the semi-finals for the first time since 2009, but Arteta's side have work to do if they're to reach the competition's showpiece event for just the second time.
Continental prioritisation allowed Liverpool to ease to the Premier League title, and Arsenal long looked set to finish in second place for the third season in a row. However, after a run of three wins in ten games, the Gunners risk sliding down the table during the final month of the campaign.
Arsenal's top-five chances rated by supercomputer after Bournemouth defeat
21 - Arsenal have dropped 21 points from winning positions in the Premier League this season, their joint-most ever in a single campaign (level with 2019-20). Brittle. #ARSBOU pic.twitter.com/wF2RkiqjWn
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) May 3, 2025
According to Opta, Arsenal still boast a 99.6% chance of finishing in the top five and qualifying for next season's Champions League. The Gunners are six points clear of Nottingham Forest in sixth with three games to go, and only a particular set of results would see Arteta's side stunningly fall out of Champions League contention.
Forest's point at Crystal Palace on Monday night further enhanced Arsenal's top-five chances after Manchester City and Chelsea both won at the weekend. Newcastle dropped points away at Brighton.
For the Gunners to finish sixth, they must lose their remaining three games (one of which is a clash at the all-time bad Southampton). Man City need four points, Newcastle and Chelsea require five, and Forest seven. With the Blues facing off against Newcastle and Forest in their final three games, the likelihood of all those teams earning the requisite points hauls to facilitate Arsenal's slide is minute.
So, let's ditch the idea of the Gunners not playing Champions League football next season. They will be. However, there's a much better chance of Man City usurping Arteta's men in the table. The CItyzens, who endured a nightmare run to end 2024 which dashed their hopes of claiming a fifth-straight title, are now just three points behind Arsenal after winning four on the bounce.
With Southampton, Bournemouth, and Fulham left on their agenda, they've got a good chance of winning out. Arsenal's remaining fixtures are undoubtedly trickier, with the Gunners travelling to Liverpool and hosting Newcastle before wrapping up their season at St. Mary's. Victory on the final day at the Saints might not be enough for Arsenal to end 2024/25 in second.
Still, Opta is backing the north Londoners to finish the season with 72.51 points and two clear of Pep Guardiola's side.
Arsenal are on course for their lowest points tally since 2021/22, with the mood bound to be bleak unless the season ends with Martin Odegaard holding the Champions League trophy aloft on 31 May.