What is Arsenal’s magical points tally for top four?

Simple answer: nobody knows. There are no certainties. All that there is to go on is history which, funnily enough, isn’t a deciding factor for Arsenal.

But it might help.

Crystal Palace are up next on the fixture list for Mikel Arteta’s side, in what will be the first of ten matches standing between themselves and the Premier League top four. Currently occupying the final Champions League spot, they have a certain degree of leeway in comparison to their rivals.

Those rivals would appear to be Tottenham and Manchester United. West Ham look out of the equation, especially considering their focus will understandably be on a two-legged Europa League tie with Lyon.

The amount of points Arsenal will need to finish in the Premier League top four depends, however; the average over the last ten years is 71 points

Even United have it all to do in order to claim top four, with them currently siting four points adrift of Arsenal having played one more game.

One scenario played out here was what it would take for the two chasing teams left involved to surpass 74 points. For Arsenal, they can reach that number with six wins, two draws and two defeats from their remaining ten matches. For Spurs, it’s eight wins and one defeat required to surpass 74 points, while for United they can draw only one of their remaining matches and then win the rest. Quite the feat.

Historically speaking, however, what has been enough to finish in the top four?

Over the past decade, the average points total for finishing fourth in the Premier League table has been 71 points. The average points required to finish above fifth has been 68 points, since oftentimes there has been a gap between the two.

It is impossible to predict what will be needed. Some say as few as 67, some say as high as 74. The respective fixture lists do favour the other half of north London with them playing only two matches against sides currently sitting in the top nine positions, as well as finishing the season two relegation strugglers Burnley and Norwich. Then again, Conte’s side struggle against teams that sit back and reduce space in behind, so there is no telling.

Across the last decade, however, 71 is the average. For Arsenal to reach that tally they will need to:

• Win 5
• Draw 2
• Lose 3

Or…

• Win 4
• Draw 5
• Lose 1

The first tally is far more conceivable, not least because Arsenal are allergic to draws this season, with their total of three draws the joint fewest in the Premier League.

To say that winning only half of the final ten matches could be enough offers reassurance, but, as ever, nothing is so simple in this unpredictable division. Yet if averages are to one’s taste and history is there to be leaned on, not re-made, then 71 points should do the trick.

Supposedly. Maybe. Probably not. It’s still one game at a time….