One shocking stat explains why Arsenal would take a draw at Man City

Following last weekend's defeat to Bournemouth, it felt as though Arsenal's Premier League title hopes were falling apart. Now though, they have the perfect opportunity to make a statement. On Sunday, Mikel Arteta's team travel to the Etihad, with the Gunners seeking a first away win over Manchester City since 18 January 2015; Santi Cazorla putting in a masterclass that day.

Currently six points ahead of Pep Guardiola's side having played a game more, would a draw actually be a good result for Arsenal. Well, Opta's own research certainly thinks so.

Premier League title chances based on Sunday's result

Note: Statistics courtesy of Opta.

Now, one may quibble with the idea that, were Arsenal to lose on Sunday, they would still boast a 69% chance of becoming champions. In this scenario, the Gunners' confidence may be shattered and all the momentum would be with the Sky Blues, if it isn't already. Nevertheless, a draw increases Arsenal's chances to a whopping 89%, while Opta think it's basically a done deal if Arteta's team prevail. Here's hoping!

Earlier this week, speaking during CBS' Champions League coverage, Thierry Henry demanded that Arsenal go and win at the Etihad, calling for Arteta and his team to show the fire he has been talking about. Of course, a win would be amazing, but how often do Premier League champions actually beat their closest challengers on the road?

Premier League champions' result vs runners-up (2010-2025)

Across the last 12 seasons, only twice have the champions claimed victory on the road against the runners-up. Both were Manchester City victories, 2-1 winners at Old Trafford in December 2017, as the pair finished 19 points apart. Guardiola's team then beat Arsenal in North London in 2023, en route to picking up the treble.

That though is it, with the eventual second-place finishers beating the title winners at home six times since 2010/11, including Arsenal's last-gasp 1-0 win over Man City in 2023/24. In summary, victory at the Etihad on Sunday will neither be easy nor totally necessary, albeit no Gooner would turn it down.

Arsenal's most-likely method of earning a result is to not play for a draw. If Arteta's team sit back and invite pressure, once the Citizens find a way through, which they almost certainly will, then trying to shift that mindset will be challenging in front of a crowd baying for blood. Who knows how Sunday will go, but it will certainly have a major impact on the title race, that is for certain.

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