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The Champions League represents Arsenal's final shot at redemption in what's been a bitterly frustrating 2024/25 season.
Pre-season expectations haven't been met, and Arsenal's campaign will be all but over by mid-March should PSV Eindhoven upset the Gunners in the round of 16. Mikel Arteta's side have already exited both domestic cups and are now 13 points behind Liverpool at the top of the Premier League table.
It's been a tough few weeks.
However, a successful league phase campaign saw the north Londoners zoom straight into the last 16, avoiding the treacherous play-offs, and the sturdy foundations installed by the manager means this Arsenal team do have a genuine shot of enjoying a deep continental run. Defence wins championships, and all that.
Here's how Opta's supercomputer rates Arsenal's chances of winning the 2024/25 Champions League before the knockout stages get underway.
Arsenal still rated among favourites to win the Champions League
Opta's model takes into account betting markets and their very own power rankings (determined by historical and recent team performances) when estimating the probability of each match outcome. The competition as a whole is simulated 10,000 times to provide an overall projection.
Before Arsenal visit PSV Eindhoven on Tuesday night in the first leg of their round of 16 tie, Opta has the Gunners as the fourth most likely team to win the Champions League. Of the 10,000 simulations run by Opta's model, the Gunners lifted the trophy 11.6% of the time. Only Liverpool (19.2%), Barcelona (14.8%), and Inter (14%) were more frequent victors.
Opta is also confident of an Arsenal victory over PSV in the last 16. While the Dutch side beat Juventus in the play-offs to advance, there have been domestic issues heading into the contest. Before the tie kicks off, Arsenal's chances of progressing into the quarter-finals are rated as highly as 74.5%. The model is only more certain that Inter, who face Feyenoord, will win their round of 16 match-up.
Interestingly, the supercomputer would also back the Gunners to beat the Madrid giant which advances into the last eight. Arsenal's tough route to Munich includes a bout with either Real or Ateti in the quarters, and the Premier League side's chances of reaching the semi-finals are rated at 40.9% - more than both Real (32.1%) and Atleti (19.5%). It's worth noting that Arsenal could have both Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli back fit for any potential quarter-final.
Given what we've seen from Arteta's side as of late, it's hard to get on board with Opta's projection. While even an Arsenal team without four frontline attackers should have enough to bypass PSV, heritage matters. It'll require a mammoth effort to reach the last four.